ETTL glanced over some figures today that put paid to the PM's line about British debt being significantly lower than the rest of the OECD. Effectively that statement is only correct if one decides to not count everything - really.
According to the ever-optimistic Treasury's latest figures UK public net debt is equal to 41.2% of GDP, thereby putting us well below Germany, the US and so forth. Except that that figure doesn't include, for example, 11 years of dodgy PFI deals, that are themselves equal to 7% of GDP. Northern Rock (also ignored, despite being owned and controlled by the state) is worth 6.4% and the other banking bailouts 4.6%. We'll soon be talking serious numbers at this point!
Throw in Network Rail (1.4%) and nuclear decommissioning (2.2%) and we have a grand total of 62.8% of GDP - more than 50% bigger than the dodgy official figure. Terrifying, and very unethical. This figure represents all the debt and liabilities of HM Government and is thus the figure that matters for the money and bond markets. The 41.2% figure is so spun it comes close to being an official lie, never mind a statistic.
Monday, 15 December 2008
Irony in freedom
Throwing shoes is, apparently, very rude, especially so in the Arab world. Throwing them at George Bush is a political protest of the sort previous Iraqi regimes would have dealt with using acid baths and rape rooms.
It is thus beautifully ironic that those calling for the release of the Iraqi journalist who so shamed the quick-footed Mr Bush have asserted that a failure to release him would be "considered the acts of a dictatorial regime". Oh how the Iraqis have learnt to love freedom!
We hear very little good news from Iraq, despite the reduction in violence since the "surge". But throwing that shoe, at that man, was progress. ETTL hopes this is but the first step in a movement of direct action and glorious political satire in a land previously lacking in both.
It is thus beautifully ironic that those calling for the release of the Iraqi journalist who so shamed the quick-footed Mr Bush have asserted that a failure to release him would be "considered the acts of a dictatorial regime". Oh how the Iraqis have learnt to love freedom!
We hear very little good news from Iraq, despite the reduction in violence since the "surge". But throwing that shoe, at that man, was progress. ETTL hopes this is but the first step in a movement of direct action and glorious political satire in a land previously lacking in both.
Friday, 12 December 2008
On responsibility
The de Menezes verdict is no surprise, but what does it really tell us? What really shocked ETTL was what appears to be barefaced lying by the Met. Not one person in that Tube carriage corroborated the story that the Police had identified themselves before blowing the unfortunate de Menezes' head away. Indeed witnesses recalled being terrified of what appeared to a group of gun-toting men storming into their commute, not a Brazilian electrician.
Furthermore, if the cops had identified themselves, how does this square with the stated intention of neutralising de Menezes as an identified suicide bomber? If one is to do this a warning is the last thing the police should have done, and seems to run contrary to the secret Operation: Kratos the Met has in place to deal with terrorism. Either they are lying or they are plain incompetent.
ETTL believes the kind of society he would like to live in means accepting that, in Stanley Baldwin's adapted phrase, the "bomber will always get through". I do not want extra-judicial executions but if this is to happen the evidence has to be incontrovertible. For that reason the Judge in the inquiry should not have ruled out unlawful killing as an option for the jury, as that is exactly what occurred on that dark July morning.
Furthermore, if the cops had identified themselves, how does this square with the stated intention of neutralising de Menezes as an identified suicide bomber? If one is to do this a warning is the last thing the police should have done, and seems to run contrary to the secret Operation: Kratos the Met has in place to deal with terrorism. Either they are lying or they are plain incompetent.
ETTL believes the kind of society he would like to live in means accepting that, in Stanley Baldwin's adapted phrase, the "bomber will always get through". I do not want extra-judicial executions but if this is to happen the evidence has to be incontrovertible. For that reason the Judge in the inquiry should not have ruled out unlawful killing as an option for the jury, as that is exactly what occurred on that dark July morning.
Thursday, 11 December 2008
Irish eyes smiling?
So Lisbon is to voted on again by the plucky Irish.
Hmmm.
ETTL loves the European project and believes the success of the xenophobes was due to misinformation and scare-mongering amongst an Irish populace keen on farm subsidies and scared of a conscription-based EU army. But the Commission needs to move with the utmost diplomacy if the result is to be different a second time around.
Certain (legally binding) guarantees on tax, abortion and Eire's neutrality are a good start but more will be needed. In June the pro-Treaty campaign was handled terribly, with little or no rebuttle of bare-faced lies by the No camp. This is all too typical of the pro-European timidity that exists in the UK political elite as well.
Ireland needs to be reminded of why it loved Europe in the first place. It has gone from a sick joke to one of the richest countries in the world, primarily through Brussels' cash and assistance in economic reform. Its future, like all small European nations, has to go through the EU if it is not to be overwhelmed by events like the current economic downturn.
ETTL wishes Lisbon an easy passage, but for this to happen the voters need to understand and appreciate Europe. Certainly the other side will have their energy and "information" on display. The Yes camp needs to fight hard, and with passion, if it is to win - and that goes for all of our continent.
Hmmm.
ETTL loves the European project and believes the success of the xenophobes was due to misinformation and scare-mongering amongst an Irish populace keen on farm subsidies and scared of a conscription-based EU army. But the Commission needs to move with the utmost diplomacy if the result is to be different a second time around.
Certain (legally binding) guarantees on tax, abortion and Eire's neutrality are a good start but more will be needed. In June the pro-Treaty campaign was handled terribly, with little or no rebuttle of bare-faced lies by the No camp. This is all too typical of the pro-European timidity that exists in the UK political elite as well.
Ireland needs to be reminded of why it loved Europe in the first place. It has gone from a sick joke to one of the richest countries in the world, primarily through Brussels' cash and assistance in economic reform. Its future, like all small European nations, has to go through the EU if it is not to be overwhelmed by events like the current economic downturn.
ETTL wishes Lisbon an easy passage, but for this to happen the voters need to understand and appreciate Europe. Certainly the other side will have their energy and "information" on display. The Yes camp needs to fight hard, and with passion, if it is to win - and that goes for all of our continent.
Shedding pounds
With sterling reaching a record low against the euro (the latter deemed a "toilet currency" back in 1999 when people had little faith in the single currency) for the second day running, ETTL wonders if this really is the Gnomes of Zurich passing a scathing judgement on HMG's debt-fuelled policy.
More likely is a monetary policy-based logic: with rates a half-point higher in the eurozone vis a vis the UK, investors will naturally be keen on sending their capital to the former area. If the markets were really casting judgement on fiscal policy the pound would not have increased against the dollar, as it did today.
And there are opportunities (for some) in a falling currency. Exporters will get a boost, although with world demand already low (and falling) this will be muted. And the attractiveness of the UK for tourists is higher, if seen from a purely financial point of view.
Currency movements are nothing new, and ETTL fears the Right are seeing too much into the pound's recent fall. It is ludicrous to suggest the markets have complete faith in the governments of France or Germany when compared to the UK. Indeed we should be watching the gilt market, not the currencies, for a real indication of their opinion of the UK's economic prospects.
More likely is a monetary policy-based logic: with rates a half-point higher in the eurozone vis a vis the UK, investors will naturally be keen on sending their capital to the former area. If the markets were really casting judgement on fiscal policy the pound would not have increased against the dollar, as it did today.
And there are opportunities (for some) in a falling currency. Exporters will get a boost, although with world demand already low (and falling) this will be muted. And the attractiveness of the UK for tourists is higher, if seen from a purely financial point of view.
Currency movements are nothing new, and ETTL fears the Right are seeing too much into the pound's recent fall. It is ludicrous to suggest the markets have complete faith in the governments of France or Germany when compared to the UK. Indeed we should be watching the gilt market, not the currencies, for a real indication of their opinion of the UK's economic prospects.
Friday, 5 December 2008
George Osborne is a stupid twat
ETTL assumes no explanation is needed for the title of this post, though if more evidence of the shadow Chancellor's top dickheadery was needed he is providing it today in a speech slagging off Labour's "euro fanatics".
Right.
So the Labour party, with its sensible and pragmatic approach to the euro, is the fanatic party, while the xenophobic and sovereignty-obsessed Tories have the more sensible approach? There is simply no equivalence, as Labour (unlike the Lib Dems) are not expressly pro-euro unless it can be determined to be in the nation's economic sel-interest. This is raw realpolitik, not fanaticism.
It is the Conservative party which is euro fanatical, and indeed fanatical about the whole European project. Every proposal is an attempt to attack Britain, every ally a shady foreigner and every single currency ruled out completely, economics ignored as it doesn't fit in with the Tory view of things. This approach was what made the Major government a laughing stock in the EU and is to be repeated if Osborne and chums get into power.
Right.
So the Labour party, with its sensible and pragmatic approach to the euro, is the fanatic party, while the xenophobic and sovereignty-obsessed Tories have the more sensible approach? There is simply no equivalence, as Labour (unlike the Lib Dems) are not expressly pro-euro unless it can be determined to be in the nation's economic sel-interest. This is raw realpolitik, not fanaticism.
It is the Conservative party which is euro fanatical, and indeed fanatical about the whole European project. Every proposal is an attempt to attack Britain, every ally a shady foreigner and every single currency ruled out completely, economics ignored as it doesn't fit in with the Tory view of things. This approach was what made the Major government a laughing stock in the EU and is to be repeated if Osborne and chums get into power.
Rates
ETTL gets quite annoyed at shoddy financial journalism. Case in point: the idea that a reduction in the base rate by the Bank of England should mean unrestrained joy and celebration for all of Albion's residents.
The way the Mail et al report things, everyone experiences a real increase in their purchasing power (and thus, eventually, utility) through yesterday's reduction to the lowest level since Winston Churchill was PM. Not so. For one thing, net savers - who have large amounts of capital in various banks but little or no debt - are worse off. Indeed anyone who uses savings as a large part of their income (pensioners spring to mind) will see smaller incomes in the near future.
It is particularly irritating when the Middle England papers bang on about homeowners craving a cut. This is only true if same homeowners have not paid off their mortgage; if they have, they are also likely to have large savings, and thus a rate cut is not what they would choose.
Yesterday's cut in rates was necessary and sensible. But the idea that everyone benefits is silly; the MPC makes decisions for the general health of the economy, and like everything in economics there are winners and losers. The press should reflect this.
The way the Mail et al report things, everyone experiences a real increase in their purchasing power (and thus, eventually, utility) through yesterday's reduction to the lowest level since Winston Churchill was PM. Not so. For one thing, net savers - who have large amounts of capital in various banks but little or no debt - are worse off. Indeed anyone who uses savings as a large part of their income (pensioners spring to mind) will see smaller incomes in the near future.
It is particularly irritating when the Middle England papers bang on about homeowners craving a cut. This is only true if same homeowners have not paid off their mortgage; if they have, they are also likely to have large savings, and thus a rate cut is not what they would choose.
Yesterday's cut in rates was necessary and sensible. But the idea that everyone benefits is silly; the MPC makes decisions for the general health of the economy, and like everything in economics there are winners and losers. The press should reflect this.
Wednesday, 3 December 2008
Strange bedfellows
The production of cluster bombs was banned today. Except that some of the good guys didn't show up.
Alongside Russia and China (no surprises there), the US and Israel have declined to ban these particularly horrible weapons, mainly because they like reserving the right to use them so much. The former's, laid in Laos thirty years ago, still kill civilians; and the latter used them with gay abandon against women and children in Lebanon just two years ago.
For once there was no bullshit with Blighty. Previously the third most prolific user of cluster bombs (against the Israelis and Americans), the UK has promised to destroy its existing stockpiles and pressure the US to remove the cluster bombs it currently stores here. Good stuff; and testament to Miliband's work with his German and other counterparts.
ETTL hopes that this means 1997's "ethical foreign policy" is being revived and that 2009 may see President Obama shifting the US' position into line with the rest of the free world and thus maintaining some kind of consistency to Western moral standing. We can only lecture the rest of the world if we take the first steps...
Alongside Russia and China (no surprises there), the US and Israel have declined to ban these particularly horrible weapons, mainly because they like reserving the right to use them so much. The former's, laid in Laos thirty years ago, still kill civilians; and the latter used them with gay abandon against women and children in Lebanon just two years ago.
For once there was no bullshit with Blighty. Previously the third most prolific user of cluster bombs (against the Israelis and Americans), the UK has promised to destroy its existing stockpiles and pressure the US to remove the cluster bombs it currently stores here. Good stuff; and testament to Miliband's work with his German and other counterparts.
ETTL hopes that this means 1997's "ethical foreign policy" is being revived and that 2009 may see President Obama shifting the US' position into line with the rest of the free world and thus maintaining some kind of consistency to Western moral standing. We can only lecture the rest of the world if we take the first steps...
Who's Queenie?
ETTL has mixed views regarding the Queen's Speech, which was (perhaps inevitably) a hodge-podge of pre-planned bills and stuff tailored to the nascent depression.
As already blogged, ETTL is broadly in flavour of the new moves to push the unemployed into work, but there are limits. Proposed lie detector tests to reduce benefit fraud are the ultimate in New Labour paranoia, and detract attention away from the pro-liberal removal of the proposed Communications Data Bill. This Stalinist horror would have created a state-controlled database of all emails and phone calls, and is now out for "further consultation". Hopefully it will never return.
On the economy there were no great surprises; Lord Mandy is said to have sifted through all twelve (down from eighteen in the draft) bills to ensure their anti-cyclical nature. Bizarrely this includes a watering down of the Health Bill, with shops still being able to display cigarettes. On the other hand the nanny state is cracking down on binge drinking by forcing a (mandatory) code of conduct on the drinks industry. Shocking.
As already blogged, ETTL is broadly in flavour of the new moves to push the unemployed into work, but there are limits. Proposed lie detector tests to reduce benefit fraud are the ultimate in New Labour paranoia, and detract attention away from the pro-liberal removal of the proposed Communications Data Bill. This Stalinist horror would have created a state-controlled database of all emails and phone calls, and is now out for "further consultation". Hopefully it will never return.
On the economy there were no great surprises; Lord Mandy is said to have sifted through all twelve (down from eighteen in the draft) bills to ensure their anti-cyclical nature. Bizarrely this includes a watering down of the Health Bill, with shops still being able to display cigarettes. On the other hand the nanny state is cracking down on binge drinking by forcing a (mandatory) code of conduct on the drinks industry. Shocking.
Tuesday, 2 December 2008
On the American Dream
ETTL hears that William "Captain Kirk" Shatner is to present a chat show in the near future, in yet another display of celebrity outsourcing. Is there no end to the apparent talents of slebs? One has merely to make it big in one field (acting, music) to end up with large economies of scale through the revenues from your new fragrance or so forth.
Perhaps this is the underpinning of the contemporary American Dream. Once you have cleared the intitial obstacles to fame and fortune, the greasy pole suddenly becomes clean and horizontal. No more must one strive time and again to achieve the next stage of one's illustrious career; instead your brand is what matters, and the (alleged) talents that got you there in the first place seem irrelevant.
The noted philosopher (sic) Shania Twain once remarked on the irony of being bombarded with freebies once she was a multi-millionaire after never enjoying such largesse when she was a poor child. ETTL wonders where the next great chat show host will come from if such positions go to old hams like Shatner. Or do producers just not want to take any risks anymore?
Perhaps this is the underpinning of the contemporary American Dream. Once you have cleared the intitial obstacles to fame and fortune, the greasy pole suddenly becomes clean and horizontal. No more must one strive time and again to achieve the next stage of one's illustrious career; instead your brand is what matters, and the (alleged) talents that got you there in the first place seem irrelevant.
The noted philosopher (sic) Shania Twain once remarked on the irony of being bombarded with freebies once she was a multi-millionaire after never enjoying such largesse when she was a poor child. ETTL wonders where the next great chat show host will come from if such positions go to old hams like Shatner. Or do producers just not want to take any risks anymore?
Monday, 1 December 2008
Soft power
Some wise words from the President-elect today. Besides gathering a fine collection of centrist and pragmatic policy wonks around him and announcing them as his national security team, Obama spoke movingly of using America's appeal and "brand" in the battle for hearts and minds.
Aside from being a refreshing change from Bush's willy-waving, Obama's promised approach is far more likely to work. Joseph Nye, amongst others, has theorised about the potency of "soft power" in shaping the 21st century world. ETTL concurs. Everyone, it seems, likes Brad Pitt, the Statue of Liberty and cheesesburgers. Most non-US citizens are not too keen on being bombed back to the stone age however; thus it makes sense to use the market (damn efficient!) to bring people round to the liberal democratic side.
Of course US cultural domination can be argued to have gone too far; I myself am not proud of the four(!) Starbucks which dot Islington's Upper Street, a thoroughfare barely a kilometre long. Nevertheless, even those who blanch at the Pentagon's excesses watch Seinfeld. This is why China et al, however vaunted their military and economic progress and potential, will never match the soft power of the US. So reining in the military and spreading the love makes good strategic sense, as well as being change we can believe in.
Aside from being a refreshing change from Bush's willy-waving, Obama's promised approach is far more likely to work. Joseph Nye, amongst others, has theorised about the potency of "soft power" in shaping the 21st century world. ETTL concurs. Everyone, it seems, likes Brad Pitt, the Statue of Liberty and cheesesburgers. Most non-US citizens are not too keen on being bombed back to the stone age however; thus it makes sense to use the market (damn efficient!) to bring people round to the liberal democratic side.
Of course US cultural domination can be argued to have gone too far; I myself am not proud of the four(!) Starbucks which dot Islington's Upper Street, a thoroughfare barely a kilometre long. Nevertheless, even those who blanch at the Pentagon's excesses watch Seinfeld. This is why China et al, however vaunted their military and economic progress and potential, will never match the soft power of the US. So reining in the military and spreading the love makes good strategic sense, as well as being change we can believe in.
Neither eyes to see nor tongue to speak
More rumbles from Greengate, with the Speaker now under fire for, in an sense, allowing the sanctity of Parliament to be violated. Didn't we fight a bloody and crippling civil war so as to enable the Speaker to do as "this House is pleased to direct me whose servant I am here", rather than kowtow to the police in allowing them to search Damian Green's Westminster offices?
Perhaps more disturbing is Jacqui Smith's continued Pilate-esque washing of her hands of the whole affair; she needs to remember that she is the de facto head of the police and that their authority is derived from her and her colleagues, not the other way around. The new line seems to be that Green was "grooming" a civil servant to leak documents and so forth, and thus was guilty of far more naughty behaviour than merely being in receipt of said documents.
Quite how the police could prove this in court is not clear; various jurists have posited that they could not, and thus ETTL is firm in his belief that the arrest was meant to put the frighteners on Green and any other opposition MPs or civil servants, including the rumoured Treasury mole. Interesting times for Parliamentary democracy certainly, but not events that I would wish to see in the mother of all Parliaments.
Perhaps more disturbing is Jacqui Smith's continued Pilate-esque washing of her hands of the whole affair; she needs to remember that she is the de facto head of the police and that their authority is derived from her and her colleagues, not the other way around. The new line seems to be that Green was "grooming" a civil servant to leak documents and so forth, and thus was guilty of far more naughty behaviour than merely being in receipt of said documents.
Quite how the police could prove this in court is not clear; various jurists have posited that they could not, and thus ETTL is firm in his belief that the arrest was meant to put the frighteners on Green and any other opposition MPs or civil servants, including the rumoured Treasury mole. Interesting times for Parliamentary democracy certainly, but not events that I would wish to see in the mother of all Parliaments.
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