The murder and mayhem in Bombay offer, perhaps, an opportunity to cement relations between the subcontinent and the West. By so graphically attacking the "Hindu-Zionist-Western" infidels (sic) the Islamists may, ETTL hopes, be pushing India further in the direction of said infidels.
With China poised to shape the 21st century, it is essential that the West has a showcase industrial democracy that can compete with, and hopefully influence, the other Asian giant. India, with its British legacy of the rule of law and the rule of law, can be a bulwark against Chinese growth and communist tyranny. We need proof that raising living standards can come from the liberalised market and not just a centralised state.
Whoever caused so much misery earlier this week in Bombay saw India as being part of a Western alliance that includes the hated Americans, Israelis and even dear old Albion. They may be right, and it is this alliance that needs to be extended (perhaps formally) so as to cement India's position in an extremely diverse and unstable part of the world. NATO membership anyone?
Saturday, 29 November 2008
Friday, 28 November 2008
They got the wrong Tory!
ETTL has heard it said that a liberal is merely a conservative who has been arrested. On that basis Damian Green (a.k.a The Ashford One) should be joining Clegg and Co. ASAP. But given this is unlikely to happen, ETTL is a bit miffed at all the hoo-ha, simply because they arrested one of the nicer members of the Conservative Party.
Green is a one-nation Tory (yes a few are still alive) and not very popular with Cameron and the Bullingdon clique. He had every right to use leaked documents against the government; that is something like the raison d'etre of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition. Indeed it is an integral part of parliamentary democracy, and if anything it is Labour who leak too much, as argued here yesterday.
Indeed the whole bizarre business has enabled the Tories to get all wounded and made Labour look a bit Stalinist. Arresting opposition politicians is usually not part of how the game is played; at least not outside Zimbabwe. Whether or not the PM or Home Secretary were briefed in advance they need to publicly draw back from this action and accept that there is a distinction between treason and accountability.
Green is a one-nation Tory (yes a few are still alive) and not very popular with Cameron and the Bullingdon clique. He had every right to use leaked documents against the government; that is something like the raison d'etre of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition. Indeed it is an integral part of parliamentary democracy, and if anything it is Labour who leak too much, as argued here yesterday.
Indeed the whole bizarre business has enabled the Tories to get all wounded and made Labour look a bit Stalinist. Arresting opposition politicians is usually not part of how the game is played; at least not outside Zimbabwe. Whether or not the PM or Home Secretary were briefed in advance they need to publicly draw back from this action and accept that there is a distinction between treason and accountability.
Thursday, 27 November 2008
Throwing money at problems (cont.)
Yes the PM wants to save Woolies! Hooray! Or not.
Woolies is dead because no-one wanted to buy the things it sold. That is the market verdict. Shoppers may shed a nostalgic tear but when it came to it they were not following such views with their cash. Thus neither should the taxpayer; the priority, such as it exists, is to ensure employees can be found new jobs, much as any newly unemployed citizen should be treated.
At times of budget-busting spending by the state it is especially silly to make noises about using state cash and assistance to help firms survive. Deloitte as administrators need to get cash to Woolies' creditors whilst cutting prices on unsold stock - an action which would benefit the consumer, especially at a time when we are facing an austerity Christmas.
ETTL feels for those who will lose their jobs because of Woolies' demise; but I do for all who are suffering because of the downturn, not just those who some argue should get other people's money because of some sentimental fiscal policy. Creative destruction is what creates the next Woolworths; the PM should remember that.
Woolies is dead because no-one wanted to buy the things it sold. That is the market verdict. Shoppers may shed a nostalgic tear but when it came to it they were not following such views with their cash. Thus neither should the taxpayer; the priority, such as it exists, is to ensure employees can be found new jobs, much as any newly unemployed citizen should be treated.
At times of budget-busting spending by the state it is especially silly to make noises about using state cash and assistance to help firms survive. Deloitte as administrators need to get cash to Woolies' creditors whilst cutting prices on unsold stock - an action which would benefit the consumer, especially at a time when we are facing an austerity Christmas.
ETTL feels for those who will lose their jobs because of Woolies' demise; but I do for all who are suffering because of the downturn, not just those who some argue should get other people's money because of some sentimental fiscal policy. Creative destruction is what creates the next Woolworths; the PM should remember that.
When leaks become a deluge
Noises coming out from the Guardian, amongst others, suggest real concern in HMG that there is a Jack Bauer-esque mole in the Treasury or HMRC feeding exciting snippets of information (such as that suggesting future VAT hikes) to the Tory party.
ETTL is surprised/amused the government is bringing up the Official Secrets Act (for they are) given the near obsessional leaking on behalf of HMG when it comes to the bits of the PBR, and past Budgets, they want to be leaked. In 1947 the then Chancellor resigned when it became clear he had told a journalist what was to be included in the upcoming Budget. That would never happen now.
Pro-Tory civil servants are to be expected. That will always be the case in an organisation far more keen on continuity over change. But Labour need to remember that at some point leaking their own angle stops being useful and becomes undemocratic; it is Parliament who deliberates on finance bills and the like, and it is there such bills should be heard first.
ETTL is surprised/amused the government is bringing up the Official Secrets Act (for they are) given the near obsessional leaking on behalf of HMG when it comes to the bits of the PBR, and past Budgets, they want to be leaked. In 1947 the then Chancellor resigned when it became clear he had told a journalist what was to be included in the upcoming Budget. That would never happen now.
Pro-Tory civil servants are to be expected. That will always be the case in an organisation far more keen on continuity over change. But Labour need to remember that at some point leaking their own angle stops being useful and becomes undemocratic; it is Parliament who deliberates on finance bills and the like, and it is there such bills should be heard first.
Tuesday, 25 November 2008
On sexual stimulation
The esteemed sleazy old man (and Tory) Peter Stringfellow has some odd opinions, one of which, as presented to the Commons culture committee today, was that lapdancing clubs and the like are not "sexually stimulating". Ho hum.
Given the clientele of such places, ETTL suspects punters are not going to Stringfellows for a discussion of mid-18th century French love poetry. The kind of men who want/need to pay women to take their clothes off still have enough humanity to recognise that they do so as they find it a turn-on. Anything else is an insult to everyone's intelligence, theirs included.
Thus such clubs, as is being planned, should be forced to apply for "sexual encounter" licences, taking them out of the same legal bracket as your average boozer or more salubrious club. The prohibitive cost of such licences would hopefully lead to less places being established in the first place, and less of a commodified sexual culture taking hold of British cities.
This is not prudent sexual morality; this is proper licensing which takes into account the negative spillovers, in terms of a more backward society, that Stringfellows and other stripclubs create, and ETTL hopes things move quickly in this direction.
Given the clientele of such places, ETTL suspects punters are not going to Stringfellows for a discussion of mid-18th century French love poetry. The kind of men who want/need to pay women to take their clothes off still have enough humanity to recognise that they do so as they find it a turn-on. Anything else is an insult to everyone's intelligence, theirs included.
Thus such clubs, as is being planned, should be forced to apply for "sexual encounter" licences, taking them out of the same legal bracket as your average boozer or more salubrious club. The prohibitive cost of such licences would hopefully lead to less places being established in the first place, and less of a commodified sexual culture taking hold of British cities.
This is not prudent sexual morality; this is proper licensing which takes into account the negative spillovers, in terms of a more backward society, that Stringfellows and other stripclubs create, and ETTL hopes things move quickly in this direction.
Invisible hand grasps the truth
Interesting piece of analysis which has just come to ETTL's attention; much as this blog has done, the venerable (if somewhat eccentric) Adam Smith Institute has called for a raising of income tax thresholds such that the first £12,000 would be entirely burden-free. Good stuff!
The ASI reckons this would be equivalent to an extra £1,730 in the average Brit's pay-packet; thus it would be a truly Keynesian fiscal stimulation far in excess of yesterday's VAT cut. This extra £19bn could be financed by oh, I don't know, ID cards? Aircraft carriers? The government waste bucket is overflowing with possibilities.
Generally speaking the average Leftie is smarter than the average Rightist, perhaps because some of the Left's best ideas are rather more difficult to grasp than the lack of delayed gratification in, say, helping others. But in economics ETTL has nothing but respect for the ASI and others; in these times of economic hurt they should be listened to more than ever. Left and Right are coming together to demand tax-cuts at the bottom; perhaps for the wrong reasons, but a sound way to proceed nonetheless.
The ASI reckons this would be equivalent to an extra £1,730 in the average Brit's pay-packet; thus it would be a truly Keynesian fiscal stimulation far in excess of yesterday's VAT cut. This extra £19bn could be financed by oh, I don't know, ID cards? Aircraft carriers? The government waste bucket is overflowing with possibilities.
Generally speaking the average Leftie is smarter than the average Rightist, perhaps because some of the Left's best ideas are rather more difficult to grasp than the lack of delayed gratification in, say, helping others. But in economics ETTL has nothing but respect for the ASI and others; in these times of economic hurt they should be listened to more than ever. Left and Right are coming together to demand tax-cuts at the bottom; perhaps for the wrong reasons, but a sound way to proceed nonetheless.
Monday, 24 November 2008
Keynes (part 94)
Is New Labour dead? ETTL feels compelled to ask given that the Chancellor has just planned to put up the top rate of income tax (to 45%), something the party of Blair and Mandelson promised not to do a total of three times. Good times for the Left, and a reminder that Labour can be progressive without scaring Middle England.
Further shocks (if they had not been overtly leaked by HMG) came from the announcement that a fair chunk of spending due for 2010/11 is to be brought forward as VAT comes down by 2.5 percentage points, albeit for only a year. Truly a reflationary PBR, and one that broadly follows the Keynesian prescription for cranking up aggregate demand via consumers and investment by businesses.
The opposition reactions were predictable; smirking school boy prick George Osborne brayed and squeaked, to much hilarity from a variety of Tory grosteques. The legend that is Vince Cable demonstrated (in the Chancellor's opinion, as well as ETTL's) far greater thoughfulness in backing some of Darling's measures whilst pushing for a permanent cut in income tax at the bottom.
Borrowing is a problem, clearly; but at around 40% of GDP net debt is not outlandish by international standards and allows the projected growth of around 17 percentage points without needing high interest rates. The main problem ETTL has with the Chancellor's statement was the projected rise in National Insurance in the near future; a cut in non-multiplier spending (like ID cards) would have been preferable.
Nevertheless the markets were pleased; the FTSE closed almost 10% up. A fair reaction to a PBR of unprecedented political, as well as economic, importance.
Further shocks (if they had not been overtly leaked by HMG) came from the announcement that a fair chunk of spending due for 2010/11 is to be brought forward as VAT comes down by 2.5 percentage points, albeit for only a year. Truly a reflationary PBR, and one that broadly follows the Keynesian prescription for cranking up aggregate demand via consumers and investment by businesses.
The opposition reactions were predictable; smirking school boy prick George Osborne brayed and squeaked, to much hilarity from a variety of Tory grosteques. The legend that is Vince Cable demonstrated (in the Chancellor's opinion, as well as ETTL's) far greater thoughfulness in backing some of Darling's measures whilst pushing for a permanent cut in income tax at the bottom.
Borrowing is a problem, clearly; but at around 40% of GDP net debt is not outlandish by international standards and allows the projected growth of around 17 percentage points without needing high interest rates. The main problem ETTL has with the Chancellor's statement was the projected rise in National Insurance in the near future; a cut in non-multiplier spending (like ID cards) would have been preferable.
Nevertheless the markets were pleased; the FTSE closed almost 10% up. A fair reaction to a PBR of unprecedented political, as well as economic, importance.
Friday, 21 November 2008
Foggy Bottom Blues
ETTL is far from convinced that Hillary Clinton becoming Secretary of State is the best move for her. Why not stay in the Senate, with a mind to becoming Majority Leader, and thus one of the most powerful politicians in America?
Indeed the State Department means Hillary will have to switch from tough, near-iconic domestic liberal to the US' top diplomat - no campaigning for the mid-terms, indeed no real "political" activity at all whilst she is at Foggy Bottom. The fact the job may be for only four years is another con.
What Hillary is doing is accepting that there will not be another Clinton in the White House, at least from this generation. Times have moved on considerably from when, in the emergent US' political sphere, State was considered the logical step before the Presidency.
Thus in offering her the job, the President-elect is formally consolidating his victory over both her and her primary campaign.
Indeed the State Department means Hillary will have to switch from tough, near-iconic domestic liberal to the US' top diplomat - no campaigning for the mid-terms, indeed no real "political" activity at all whilst she is at Foggy Bottom. The fact the job may be for only four years is another con.
What Hillary is doing is accepting that there will not be another Clinton in the White House, at least from this generation. Times have moved on considerably from when, in the emergent US' political sphere, State was considered the logical step before the Presidency.
Thus in offering her the job, the President-elect is formally consolidating his victory over both her and her primary campaign.
Thinking the unthinkable?
Much talk today on the potential poverty-increasing effects of new DWP plans that will force parents to work once their youngest child is 12 or risk losing benefits. This is exactly the king of reform what the Left should be supporting, with a few caveats.
There is nothing noble about fostering a culture of welfarism and keeping millions entirely reliant on state largesse. That is ETTL's main problem with the PM's absurdly complicated system of tax credits, whose only substantive advantage over a simple tax cut is that it allows the levers of government to control people's income and consumption choices more effectively.
What the state needs to do if it is to wean people back into work is better childcare; if parents are no longer around once a child is 12 we need Scandinavian-style services so as to ensure any negative externalities are not inflicted on the next generation.
There seems to ETTL a real division on the Left between those who see welfare as an end in itself and those who believe in a safety net but prefer people achieve their full potential, the latter of which is not possible with overt state largesse. So next week's PBR, if truly progressive, would cut taxes on income, abolish tax credits and use the resulting savings to pay for childcare vouchers. ETTL, and James Purnell, are not optimistic...
There is nothing noble about fostering a culture of welfarism and keeping millions entirely reliant on state largesse. That is ETTL's main problem with the PM's absurdly complicated system of tax credits, whose only substantive advantage over a simple tax cut is that it allows the levers of government to control people's income and consumption choices more effectively.
What the state needs to do if it is to wean people back into work is better childcare; if parents are no longer around once a child is 12 we need Scandinavian-style services so as to ensure any negative externalities are not inflicted on the next generation.
There seems to ETTL a real division on the Left between those who see welfare as an end in itself and those who believe in a safety net but prefer people achieve their full potential, the latter of which is not possible with overt state largesse. So next week's PBR, if truly progressive, would cut taxes on income, abolish tax credits and use the resulting savings to pay for childcare vouchers. ETTL, and James Purnell, are not optimistic...
Thursday, 20 November 2008
Burn After Watching
ETTL enjoyed the Coen brothers' latest, Burn After Reading, last night; dare I say that they are back to Fargo-levels of comic brilliance?
Certainly the Coens have learnt to use Hollywood stars in a more polished manner; George Clooney plays the fool (as does Brad Pitt, whose fate is as unexpected as it is shocking) so well that ETTL just about forgot the horror of him and Catherine Zeta-Jones in 2001's Intolerable Cruelty. That said, the real joy came from watching Frances McDormand do her zany thing, as well as John Malkovich do his bitter old soak thing; character actors perhaps, but superb ones regardless.
As is usual, Burn sees a succession of losers (some nice-guys) get rapidly pulled into things they have no control over, and even less understanding. Arguably the Coens are today's Russian novelists, spinning multi-layered yarns where pretty much everything goes wrong. Surely a metaphor for today's post-Bush America?
Certainly the Coens have learnt to use Hollywood stars in a more polished manner; George Clooney plays the fool (as does Brad Pitt, whose fate is as unexpected as it is shocking) so well that ETTL just about forgot the horror of him and Catherine Zeta-Jones in 2001's Intolerable Cruelty. That said, the real joy came from watching Frances McDormand do her zany thing, as well as John Malkovich do his bitter old soak thing; character actors perhaps, but superb ones regardless.
As is usual, Burn sees a succession of losers (some nice-guys) get rapidly pulled into things they have no control over, and even less understanding. Arguably the Coens are today's Russian novelists, spinning multi-layered yarns where pretty much everything goes wrong. Surely a metaphor for today's post-Bush America?
Wednesday, 19 November 2008
A mixed bag at the British National Party
ETTL is not very surprised that members of the police and the military are, apparently, part of the BNP; the kind of people who like bashing heads or shooting kids would seem to be naturally sympathetic to fascism and easy "solutions" to complex problems.
What is bizarre is that a vicar is on the list. A vicar! Satire is truly dead.
Further irony comes from the attempt by the BNP to use the Human Rights Act, a fantastic piece of legislation that the Right despise, to protect its members' identities. The whole situation is more amusing than anything; presumably many of the people on the list are now worried about being the victims of the kind of vigilantism they usually encourage or perpetrate against non-whites.
ETTL broadly favours the right of all to belong to whatever political party they see fit, and thus has been troubled by the ban (since 2004) on BNP members being members of the police. This is mainly because said ban is so specific; I despise the views of UKIP or some Tories almost as much as I am contemptuous of BNP policy, such as it actually exists. Better to shame the far-Right, as the Home Secretary implied this morning. Fascism is defeated when the social stigma exceeds any perceived gains from membership; perhaps that point has come a little closer today.
What is bizarre is that a vicar is on the list. A vicar! Satire is truly dead.
Further irony comes from the attempt by the BNP to use the Human Rights Act, a fantastic piece of legislation that the Right despise, to protect its members' identities. The whole situation is more amusing than anything; presumably many of the people on the list are now worried about being the victims of the kind of vigilantism they usually encourage or perpetrate against non-whites.
ETTL broadly favours the right of all to belong to whatever political party they see fit, and thus has been troubled by the ban (since 2004) on BNP members being members of the police. This is mainly because said ban is so specific; I despise the views of UKIP or some Tories almost as much as I am contemptuous of BNP policy, such as it actually exists. Better to shame the far-Right, as the Home Secretary implied this morning. Fascism is defeated when the social stigma exceeds any perceived gains from membership; perhaps that point has come a little closer today.
Monday, 17 November 2008
Presumed consent
...is a terrifyingly illiberal idea, and so ETTL is not suprised the PM is making positive noises regarding it. Presumably the next Brownian step would be to kill the workshy and donate their useful bits to "hard-working families" in these credit-crunched times?
People do not lose their core property rights (over their own person) when they die; and thus the state assuming people would like to have donated organs (despite no evidence to this effect) is a violation of the basic Lockean principles that underpin a liberal, capitalist society.
Whatever increase in flesh that such a measure would result in would never make up for the fundamental shift between the individual and the state; and reports predict a mere 10-15% increase in donations if presumed consent were implemented. Hopefully, given the opposition of the UK Organ Donation Taskforce the idea will go the way of the cone hotline and the citizens of this island (or their families) will continue to exercise full title over all of their biology.
People do not lose their core property rights (over their own person) when they die; and thus the state assuming people would like to have donated organs (despite no evidence to this effect) is a violation of the basic Lockean principles that underpin a liberal, capitalist society.
Whatever increase in flesh that such a measure would result in would never make up for the fundamental shift between the individual and the state; and reports predict a mere 10-15% increase in donations if presumed consent were implemented. Hopefully, given the opposition of the UK Organ Donation Taskforce the idea will go the way of the cone hotline and the citizens of this island (or their families) will continue to exercise full title over all of their biology.
Greenwash in North London
ETTL resides in Islington, a fine area despite the coke-snorting antics which are detailed below. Yet there is more to rise the hackles, and it concerns Toyota Priuses (or whatever the plural of Prius is).
Priuses are very popular for the self-consciously "green", running via a mix of petroleum and electricity - hence their exemption from the Congestion Charge. Yet the line between being more green as an end in itself and going "green" because it is trendy is a thin one, and in ETTL's eyes the Prius crosses it.
According to manufacturers' stats, the Prius does 65.7mpg and emits 104g of CO2 per km. Impressive when compared to a Bentley Arnage (14.5mpg and 465g respectively) but not top - four other conventional cars on UK roads emit less CO2, and are significantly cheaper than the £18,000 Prius.
Furthermore the European hatchbacks which are greener, on most counts, than the Prius are not made in Japan and are thus not shipped thousands of miles, thus creating tonnes of CO2 in their journey to market. Diesel-powered superminis made in France or Germany are thus the more logical (and cheaper) choice for the eco-conscious Islingtonian; though since a C3 or Polo isn't as trendy as a Prius, this greenwash market failure is likely to continue for some time.
Priuses are very popular for the self-consciously "green", running via a mix of petroleum and electricity - hence their exemption from the Congestion Charge. Yet the line between being more green as an end in itself and going "green" because it is trendy is a thin one, and in ETTL's eyes the Prius crosses it.
According to manufacturers' stats, the Prius does 65.7mpg and emits 104g of CO2 per km. Impressive when compared to a Bentley Arnage (14.5mpg and 465g respectively) but not top - four other conventional cars on UK roads emit less CO2, and are significantly cheaper than the £18,000 Prius.
Furthermore the European hatchbacks which are greener, on most counts, than the Prius are not made in Japan and are thus not shipped thousands of miles, thus creating tonnes of CO2 in their journey to market. Diesel-powered superminis made in France or Germany are thus the more logical (and cheaper) choice for the eco-conscious Islingtonian; though since a C3 or Polo isn't as trendy as a Prius, this greenwash market failure is likely to continue for some time.
Thursday, 13 November 2008
Fair trade coke?
I doubt that cocaine, or any other illegal substance, will soon be appearing in ETTL's preferred Fair Trade range, but musing on this the other day, it surely becomes apparent that there is a stunning hypocrisy at work here.
ETTL surmises that the very people who would buy nothing but Fair Trade coffee and the like, read the Guardian and drive Priuses are a large contingent of the coke-snorting dinner-party circuit of North London. Don't they realise that their drugs money goes into the hands of Colombian thugs and warlords, the very sort of people the Islingtonians rail against at said dinner parties?
ETTL believes that drugs should be legalised; almost all of the externalities present in their consumption (at least domestically) comes from their illegal status. If nothing else, legalised drugs could be regulated as any product is, and cokeheads could stop feeling so guiltless about where exactly their pleasure comes from. At the moment there is no such thing as Fair Trade cocaine; liberal users (in both senses) should remember this.
ETTL surmises that the very people who would buy nothing but Fair Trade coffee and the like, read the Guardian and drive Priuses are a large contingent of the coke-snorting dinner-party circuit of North London. Don't they realise that their drugs money goes into the hands of Colombian thugs and warlords, the very sort of people the Islingtonians rail against at said dinner parties?
ETTL believes that drugs should be legalised; almost all of the externalities present in their consumption (at least domestically) comes from their illegal status. If nothing else, legalised drugs could be regulated as any product is, and cokeheads could stop feeling so guiltless about where exactly their pleasure comes from. At the moment there is no such thing as Fair Trade cocaine; liberal users (in both senses) should remember this.
Germany enters recession
Hardly unexpected, but still troubling for all of Europe: the German economy contracted by 0.5% in the third quarter of 2008, following on from a 0.4% fall April-June. Given that German economic problems have, historically, tended to be a bit shitty for all the rest of the continent as well this is pretty bad news.
But then the strength of the German economy, ETTL contends, has never been as robust as claimed. Despite being the third/forth largest economy in the world, the Germans are the biggest exporter, and thus a disproportionate chunk of GDP is not consumed by German consumers anyway. Hence an argument can be made that living standards are lower in Germany than GDP figures alone might suggest.
Interestingly then, the recession is being partly blamed on a slight reversal of this trend, with Germany sucking in more imports as its export growth slows. How shocking! Germans wanting to consume in a very "anglo-saxon" way all those Volkswagens and clever electronic products.
Germans would be advised to stop following such a mercantilist viewpoint and enjoy the fruits of their own labour, rather than sending it to France et al. Countries do not get rich from the accumulation of "treasure" as Mun argued; they get rich from saving and from investment in human capital, whilst trading freely with the rest of the world. (West) Germans used to be good at this; they need to discover the joys of dynamism.
But then the strength of the German economy, ETTL contends, has never been as robust as claimed. Despite being the third/forth largest economy in the world, the Germans are the biggest exporter, and thus a disproportionate chunk of GDP is not consumed by German consumers anyway. Hence an argument can be made that living standards are lower in Germany than GDP figures alone might suggest.
Interestingly then, the recession is being partly blamed on a slight reversal of this trend, with Germany sucking in more imports as its export growth slows. How shocking! Germans wanting to consume in a very "anglo-saxon" way all those Volkswagens and clever electronic products.
Germans would be advised to stop following such a mercantilist viewpoint and enjoy the fruits of their own labour, rather than sending it to France et al. Countries do not get rich from the accumulation of "treasure" as Mun argued; they get rich from saving and from investment in human capital, whilst trading freely with the rest of the world. (West) Germans used to be good at this; they need to discover the joys of dynamism.
Wednesday, 12 November 2008
Mr Keynes has a plan!
So screamed the Liberal propaganda of the 1930s, and indeed today seems little different. Keynes is everywhere, despite the fact that he is in the "long run" (economists will appreciate that little joke).
But where are the massive public works, where is our New Deal? All HMG promises is bringing forward some minor investment projects - the details escape ETTL at the present moment. Dull dull dull. How about a few really major infrastructure projects being done now, when they can suck in jobs and pump out some nice increased demand?
Examples? The long-discussed high-speed railway linking London to Scotland via Manchester. Or a country-wide network of wind turbines and hydroelectric dams respectively. Of course this may involve some deficit financing, but that is what one does in a recession; and the money is better spent on wages for the labourers involved than on the benefits they would otherwise be claiming.
Public works also have the advantage (over a simple tax cut) of helping the poorest in society to a disproportionate extent, and have lasting benefits to the nation that might not otherwise be realised. Keynes, notorious interwar gay and bon vivant than he was, knew the importance of having a good time; in essence that is the aim of modern economics. Who would argue against a faster trip from Glasgow to Euston? ETTL can but hope...
But where are the massive public works, where is our New Deal? All HMG promises is bringing forward some minor investment projects - the details escape ETTL at the present moment. Dull dull dull. How about a few really major infrastructure projects being done now, when they can suck in jobs and pump out some nice increased demand?
Examples? The long-discussed high-speed railway linking London to Scotland via Manchester. Or a country-wide network of wind turbines and hydroelectric dams respectively. Of course this may involve some deficit financing, but that is what one does in a recession; and the money is better spent on wages for the labourers involved than on the benefits they would otherwise be claiming.
Public works also have the advantage (over a simple tax cut) of helping the poorest in society to a disproportionate extent, and have lasting benefits to the nation that might not otherwise be realised. Keynes, notorious interwar gay and bon vivant than he was, knew the importance of having a good time; in essence that is the aim of modern economics. Who would argue against a faster trip from Glasgow to Euston? ETTL can but hope...
Larry David: Genius
In the summer of 2008 ETTL found himself bereft. The love of my life had left me. It felt like we had packed in seven years of adventure into less than one.
Yes, August saw ETTL enjoying the last episode of The West Wing, a programme I had learned to love with all the intensity that a fat kid has for cake. What to do? Where would I find another quality US show to rebound into? I found my answer in the sublime Curb your Enthusiasm, a show which could not be less like TWW if it tried.
For both shows, I am years behind their original US airing; nevertheless Larry David's material is as fresh as ever. At times cringeworthily honest, David is a man adrift on a sea of confusion, nearly always with good intentions but finding himself evermore deep in social offence and exclusion. ETTL can, unfortunately, relate to that.
So watch it - even if you have never seen Seinfeld (I hadn't - much of the 90s seems to have passed ETTL by). If you have ever offered to write an obituary for your wife's aunt and found the newspaper has written "beloved cunt" in place of the correct name, or accidently caused escalating offence via a joke about affirmative action, or been caught watching a porn film featuring a friend by another friend's parents, Curb is the show for you.
Yes, August saw ETTL enjoying the last episode of The West Wing, a programme I had learned to love with all the intensity that a fat kid has for cake. What to do? Where would I find another quality US show to rebound into? I found my answer in the sublime Curb your Enthusiasm, a show which could not be less like TWW if it tried.
For both shows, I am years behind their original US airing; nevertheless Larry David's material is as fresh as ever. At times cringeworthily honest, David is a man adrift on a sea of confusion, nearly always with good intentions but finding himself evermore deep in social offence and exclusion. ETTL can, unfortunately, relate to that.
So watch it - even if you have never seen Seinfeld (I hadn't - much of the 90s seems to have passed ETTL by). If you have ever offered to write an obituary for your wife's aunt and found the newspaper has written "beloved cunt" in place of the correct name, or accidently caused escalating offence via a joke about affirmative action, or been caught watching a porn film featuring a friend by another friend's parents, Curb is the show for you.
PMQs - a bit shit
Brown was absolutely appalling in the House today. Indeed he mishandled the Baby P issue so badly he made David Cameron look reasonable - quite an achievement.
Cameron was not "playing party politics" with the issue - he singularly failed to mention who controls the London Borough of Haringey - and Brown's obstinate refusal to retract said comment made him look a bit pathetic. Lynne Featherstone (a Haringey MP) compounded the PM's error by asking an even more reasonable question and hence highlighting Brown's refusal to order a proper public inquiry.
Brown continued to adulterate himself by a) referring to the third party as the "Liberals", as per usual, which makes ETTL wonder why he doesn't go the whole way and denounce our policies as Whiggish, and b) claiming desperately that the Lib Dem-proposed tax cut would not provide a fiscal stimulus but would adversely affect public services. This is a nonsense, unless one views ID cards and subsidies to big business as public services.
One pines for the days of Tony Blair; at least he was rude in style...
Cameron was not "playing party politics" with the issue - he singularly failed to mention who controls the London Borough of Haringey - and Brown's obstinate refusal to retract said comment made him look a bit pathetic. Lynne Featherstone (a Haringey MP) compounded the PM's error by asking an even more reasonable question and hence highlighting Brown's refusal to order a proper public inquiry.
Brown continued to adulterate himself by a) referring to the third party as the "Liberals", as per usual, which makes ETTL wonder why he doesn't go the whole way and denounce our policies as Whiggish, and b) claiming desperately that the Lib Dem-proposed tax cut would not provide a fiscal stimulus but would adversely affect public services. This is a nonsense, unless one views ID cards and subsidies to big business as public services.
One pines for the days of Tony Blair; at least he was rude in style...
Tuesday, 11 November 2008
Ils ne passeront pas
Was not uttered by Marshal Petain, as popular legend has it; instead it was stated by the less important (and less infamous) General Nivelle. Nevertheless the Germans did not break through at Verdun in 1916 and Petain went down in history as the hero of France; 160,000 of his men, and 140,000 of the Kaiser's army, died for his reputation, and that of France.
Truly astonishing sums, and ones that would be (ETTL hopes) unacceptable in today's cosy European order. Yet it is just 90 years since the First World War came to a bloody end; and today saw Nicholas Sarkozy and Prince Charles pay homage at what was the bloodiest battlefield on the Western Front.
There are less and less veterans of WW1 alive each time Armistice Day comes around; their stories are beginning to draw to a close. But they are ones worth listening to. The men of 1914-1918 deserve our eternal gratitude; the least we can do is buy a poppy and listen to their tales.
Coming home in 1919, British troops were promised "homes fit for heroes". Unfortunately these homes did not materialise.
But they were heroes all the same.
Truly astonishing sums, and ones that would be (ETTL hopes) unacceptable in today's cosy European order. Yet it is just 90 years since the First World War came to a bloody end; and today saw Nicholas Sarkozy and Prince Charles pay homage at what was the bloodiest battlefield on the Western Front.
There are less and less veterans of WW1 alive each time Armistice Day comes around; their stories are beginning to draw to a close. But they are ones worth listening to. The men of 1914-1918 deserve our eternal gratitude; the least we can do is buy a poppy and listen to their tales.
Coming home in 1919, British troops were promised "homes fit for heroes". Unfortunately these homes did not materialise.
But they were heroes all the same.
Or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Military-Industrial Complex
ETTL enjoyed Eugene Jarecki's superb 2005 expose of the fear that drives military Keynesianism, Why We Fight, last night. Populist but not in a Michael Moore-sense, clever but not patronising, the Sundance-winning documentary should be compulsive viewing for all those who still do not understand why the US spends more on defense (sic) than pretty much the entire rest of the world combined.
Jarecki's thesis is that successive US governments have created enemies so as to maintain high military spending and thus please their corporate paymasters. Such enemies range from the more plausible (USSR until 1990) to the ridiculous (Panama under Bush the First). The military-industrial complex that General Eisenhower warned Americans about is thus more of a military-industrial-congressional complex, and if anything has been given a new lease of life under Bush the Second.
How then to fight it? Jarecki gives the sublime example of a Pentagon project which has at least one component from every US state, and thus any Congressman voting against said project is apt to be accusing of undermining his electorate's economic prospects. Perhaps Americans will only be willing to cut spending when it begins to noticeably crowd out their own private consumption; a similar situation occurred in the mid-1970s when the ever-escalating costs of killing lots of South-East Asians fuelled stagflation and all but crippled the Great Society.
ETTL would love to think Obama might change things, but as Gore Vidal points out in the film, Americans cannot remember anything that happened before last Monday and so historical parallels to today's hubris would probably be lost on them. Nevertheless, Why We Fight thoroughly explores the issue, so Americans cannot say they have not been warned.
Jarecki's thesis is that successive US governments have created enemies so as to maintain high military spending and thus please their corporate paymasters. Such enemies range from the more plausible (USSR until 1990) to the ridiculous (Panama under Bush the First). The military-industrial complex that General Eisenhower warned Americans about is thus more of a military-industrial-congressional complex, and if anything has been given a new lease of life under Bush the Second.
How then to fight it? Jarecki gives the sublime example of a Pentagon project which has at least one component from every US state, and thus any Congressman voting against said project is apt to be accusing of undermining his electorate's economic prospects. Perhaps Americans will only be willing to cut spending when it begins to noticeably crowd out their own private consumption; a similar situation occurred in the mid-1970s when the ever-escalating costs of killing lots of South-East Asians fuelled stagflation and all but crippled the Great Society.
ETTL would love to think Obama might change things, but as Gore Vidal points out in the film, Americans cannot remember anything that happened before last Monday and so historical parallels to today's hubris would probably be lost on them. Nevertheless, Why We Fight thoroughly explores the issue, so Americans cannot say they have not been warned.
Monday, 10 November 2008
Tax cut madness
Tax cuts are the new black: even the prudent PM is making ominous noises about what may or may not be included in the upcoming Pre-Budget Report. Once again the Lib Dems lead where the other parties follow...
In all fairness to the Tories, who have been much maligned of late by economic liberals for not explicitly promising a nice cut in tax (and expenditure) if and when they get power, ETTL recalls that they are promising a tax cut - for the rich.
2007's Tory conference saw the yacht-loving George Osborne pledge to put up the threshold for inheritance tax to £1 million. Clearly this earth-shattering announcement will help "hard-working families" because everyone in Britain has wealth measured by the millions when they die, right?
Death taxes are no such thing. They are, in the main, a tax on unearned income and an essential component of any modern industrial democracy, both as a cause of and a maintainer of said polity. What should be cut is income tax, on those for whom the marginal pound is of the utmost value. A basic rate of less than 20% would be both politically shrewd and economically beneficial (if spending is cut appropriately).
ETTL thus awaits Mr Darling's report, and hopes that he will, like Gladstone, prefer to let money "fructify in the pockets of the people".
In all fairness to the Tories, who have been much maligned of late by economic liberals for not explicitly promising a nice cut in tax (and expenditure) if and when they get power, ETTL recalls that they are promising a tax cut - for the rich.
2007's Tory conference saw the yacht-loving George Osborne pledge to put up the threshold for inheritance tax to £1 million. Clearly this earth-shattering announcement will help "hard-working families" because everyone in Britain has wealth measured by the millions when they die, right?
Death taxes are no such thing. They are, in the main, a tax on unearned income and an essential component of any modern industrial democracy, both as a cause of and a maintainer of said polity. What should be cut is income tax, on those for whom the marginal pound is of the utmost value. A basic rate of less than 20% would be both politically shrewd and economically beneficial (if spending is cut appropriately).
ETTL thus awaits Mr Darling's report, and hopes that he will, like Gladstone, prefer to let money "fructify in the pockets of the people".
Where's Blair?
Not at the Cenotaph yesterday, at any rate. Perhaps making more money in the US and elsewhere is more seductive than hanging out with veterans? Ironic given Blair sent more men to their deaths than any PM since Clement Attlee.
Nevertheless the Remembrance Sunday service was a moving one. ETTL has been meaning to go for years, and despite the US-style security getting up in time was definitely worth it.
Interestingly the Gurkhas who marched past after the two minutes' silence got by far the loudest and most enthusiastic reception; perhaps an indication of the public's desire for their high-profile win in the High Court several weeks ago. Alongside them the wheelchair-bound and white-haired were given suitable homage; one suspects that perhaps today's non-conscripted thugs with guns were not uppermost in people's adoration at Whitehall yesterday. Bombing Afghan wedding parties just isn't as heroic as liberating Belsen.
Nevertheless the Remembrance Sunday service was a moving one. ETTL has been meaning to go for years, and despite the US-style security getting up in time was definitely worth it.
Interestingly the Gurkhas who marched past after the two minutes' silence got by far the loudest and most enthusiastic reception; perhaps an indication of the public's desire for their high-profile win in the High Court several weeks ago. Alongside them the wheelchair-bound and white-haired were given suitable homage; one suspects that perhaps today's non-conscripted thugs with guns were not uppermost in people's adoration at Whitehall yesterday. Bombing Afghan wedding parties just isn't as heroic as liberating Belsen.
Friday, 7 November 2008
Glengarry Glenrothes
Well who would have thought it? Or even cared given that other, more epoch-shaping elections were taking place this week in the English-speaking world?
Have the SNP reached their plateau? Poll analysis suggests Scots were as irritated by their Holyrood administration as much as that at Westminster. Such is the problem when one-issue protest parties get into power.
Perhaps of more note was the Lib Dem squeeze, more pronounced than is usual in an by-election since the squeeze was inflicted by three other parties. Clegg must try harder...
Have the SNP reached their plateau? Poll analysis suggests Scots were as irritated by their Holyrood administration as much as that at Westminster. Such is the problem when one-issue protest parties get into power.
Perhaps of more note was the Lib Dem squeeze, more pronounced than is usual in an by-election since the squeeze was inflicted by three other parties. Clegg must try harder...
Thursday, 6 November 2008
"I was a lover, he is a killer"
So said (Sir) Roger Moore, he of the one-eyebrowing-raising ability, to the Guardian last week, referring to Daniel Craig's portrayal of 007. Regardless of Rodge's lovemaking abilities (outstanding I'm sure), is this a bad thing? Quantum of Solace is a very polished, high-octane film which also manages to convey something of the ambiguity of Bond's existence. Perhaps the reason Craig gets his legover only the once is that all the killing (particularly the suicide of Vesper Lynd in 2006's Casino Royale) has got to him.
Indeed my only complaint with the latest Bond film, if forced to make one, would be that the killing, or rather action, is a tad relentless, particularly in the first half of the film. Fight and explosion follow fight and explosion so consistently that ETTL was left a little overwhelmed. That said, the quieter scenes, particularly those between Judi Dench's increasingly motherly M and Craig, are fantastic, and let the viewer get under Bond's skin in a way that we have not been privy to before.
Oh and the title track is surprisingly good as well. Go see it if you haven't already, just don't expect the campness of Moonraker.
Indeed my only complaint with the latest Bond film, if forced to make one, would be that the killing, or rather action, is a tad relentless, particularly in the first half of the film. Fight and explosion follow fight and explosion so consistently that ETTL was left a little overwhelmed. That said, the quieter scenes, particularly those between Judi Dench's increasingly motherly M and Craig, are fantastic, and let the viewer get under Bond's skin in a way that we have not been privy to before.
Oh and the title track is surprisingly good as well. Go see it if you haven't already, just don't expect the campness of Moonraker.
This is not 1964
Barack Obama is not "Landslide Lyndon", itching to roll out a Great Society and consolidate American progressivism for a generation. Quite right too, given that he does not have a mandate for such a far-reaching agenda. Nor will he have a filibuster-proof Senate to push through the more radical of the Democratic base's ideas.
What Obama is, arguably, is a poor man's Franklin Roosevelt. He can make good speeches and will enter office in an period when Americans are uncharacteristically reserved and terrified of what the economic cycle will throw at them next. Neither man studied economics however; the conventional few years at law school was their academic grounding in public policy.
Thus the choice of Treasury Secretary for the new President-elect is critical. The bond markets will punish Obama if he is seen to be too radical, despite the seemingly unstoppable quoting of Keynes currently infecting the political classes, at least in the UK. Larry Summers would be the obvious choice, given his academic rigour and previous experience, but is ETTL alone in wondering what might happen if someone a little "sexier" were shortlisted? I hear Paul Krugman is pretty well regarded...
What Obama is, arguably, is a poor man's Franklin Roosevelt. He can make good speeches and will enter office in an period when Americans are uncharacteristically reserved and terrified of what the economic cycle will throw at them next. Neither man studied economics however; the conventional few years at law school was their academic grounding in public policy.
Thus the choice of Treasury Secretary for the new President-elect is critical. The bond markets will punish Obama if he is seen to be too radical, despite the seemingly unstoppable quoting of Keynes currently infecting the political classes, at least in the UK. Larry Summers would be the obvious choice, given his academic rigour and previous experience, but is ETTL alone in wondering what might happen if someone a little "sexier" were shortlisted? I hear Paul Krugman is pretty well regarded...
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